2025 Heat Accumulation vs Rodent Prognostication

Credits: Ralph Katieb via Unsplash
Groundhog on snow and grass
Sat, Feb 01, 2025

Each year, people gather at Gobbler's Knob in Pennsylvania to hear Punxsutawney Phil's prediction of what the next six weeks of weather will bring. This year, Phil predicted six more weeks of winter! But what does the science say? 

Our maps of heat accumulation provide a more scientific look at how much heat has accumulated so far this year, and what's next. Our maps show that heat accumulation this year is behind schedule for much of the country, though parts of the west coast are ahead of schedule. Nature's Notebook observers have reported leaf out and flowering at locations along the west and east coast and Southeast, along with a few reports in the central part of the country.

According to predictions from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, Phil may be right for parts of the Northwest and Northern Great Plains - more cool temperatures are on the way! The rest of the county should see near normal temperatures or above-average temperatures over the next month or so.