Winter Moth Forecast

Winter moth is a non-native insect pest that causes damage to deciduous trees, particularly maples and oaks. 

Winter Moth Current Day Forecast

Winter Moth Six-Day Forecast

WHAT ARE PHENO FORECASTS?

Pheno Forecast maps predict key life cycle stages in invasive and pest species, to improve management efficacy.  For insect pest species, Pheno Forecasts are based on published growing degree day (GDD) thresholds for key points in species life cycles. These key points typically represent life cycle stages when management actions are most effective. These maps are updated daily and available 6 days in the future.

Help us improve these maps! Our Pheno Forecast map products are still in development, and we seek input on their performance in your area. Give your feedback at the bottom of the page.

SIGN UP FOR PHENO FORECAST NOTIFICATIONS!

Sign up to be notified by email approximately two weeks and again six days ahead of key growing degree day thresholds for species of interest at your location

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Credits: Milan Zubrik, Forest Research Institute - Slovakia via Bugwood.org
A winter moth adult is shown (a light colored moth) on dark bark.

SPECIES BACKGROUND

Winter moth (Operophtera brumata) is a non-native insect that was first identified in the eastern United States in 2003. The caterpillars can defoliate certain species of deciduous trees. The species is present across New England, though damaging populations are only found in eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maine. This pest does not appear to be spreading rapidly. 

Credits: Dimitrios Avtzis, NAGREF-Forest Research Institute via Bugwood.org
Many green winter moth caterpillars are shown on the trunk and branches of a small tree.

CATERPILLAR FORECAST

 

We forecast caterpillar emergence based on growing degree days. A biological control (a tachinid fly) appears to be successfully controlling this pest in some years and regions. There are several methods of control depending on local context and host species. Treating the caterpillars, particularly when they first emerge, with an insecticide spray can be an effective control. For specific information on preferred treatment options in your region, we recommend contacting your local extension agent.   For additional resources, see visit the UMass Landscape Extension Information Sheet.

EXPLORE THIS FORECAST

Learn more about this forecast using our visualization tool!

 EXPLORE FORECAST

Phenophase

GDD threshold

Base temp

Start date

GDD method

Model origin

Source

Caterpillar emergence

20-350oF

50oF

Jan 1

Simple average

MA

UMass Extension

More information on map development and re-use policy.

TRACK THIS SPECIES WITH NATURE'S NOTEBOOK

 

You can help verify this forecast by checking trees for this species and reporting your findings in Nature’s Notebook via the Pest Patrol campaign. Your observations will help scientists better understand when this species is active and susceptible to treatment.

 

Learn more about Pest Patrol

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Give us your feedback on our Pheno Forecast maps

Have you used our Pheno Forecast maps to plan treatment activities, or to know when to search for pests of interest? Do you have a suggestion of another species for which a forecast would help you make decisions? We'd love to hear about it!

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